Hey, Michael, I've heard some people saying that polling before election day is not as accurate anymore because it relies on phone calls...which us millenials and gen z avoid like the plague. Is that true or are other polling methods being used now?
Hey, Elizabeth! So yes, the polling industry has been going through tumultuous times—especially after 2016, when very few pollsters got the presidential election right, but I'd argue it's been for even longer than that. Non-response from phone surveys is definitely something they've been working through for the reasons you cite. How many people even answer phone calls anymore from numbers they don't recognize? So pollsters are experimenting with new methods such as text and online surveys, but I'm not sure exactly how they make sure those are as representative of the broader population as phone surveys have long been.
To their credit, the polls have gotten better since 2016, and they've generally been very good when Trump hasn't been on the ballot. For some reason, pollsters have just had difficulty reaching the type of voters who may only come out for him during presidential elections but then not vote in midterm years. I suppose we'll get a chance to see if they can get it right this third time around!
Hey, Michael, I've heard some people saying that polling before election day is not as accurate anymore because it relies on phone calls...which us millenials and gen z avoid like the plague. Is that true or are other polling methods being used now?
Hey, Elizabeth! So yes, the polling industry has been going through tumultuous times—especially after 2016, when very few pollsters got the presidential election right, but I'd argue it's been for even longer than that. Non-response from phone surveys is definitely something they've been working through for the reasons you cite. How many people even answer phone calls anymore from numbers they don't recognize? So pollsters are experimenting with new methods such as text and online surveys, but I'm not sure exactly how they make sure those are as representative of the broader population as phone surveys have long been.
To their credit, the polls have gotten better since 2016, and they've generally been very good when Trump hasn't been on the ballot. For some reason, pollsters have just had difficulty reaching the type of voters who may only come out for him during presidential elections but then not vote in midterm years. I suppose we'll get a chance to see if they can get it right this third time around!
Interesting! Thanks for answering!