I worry about what comes next
A brief reaction to the news about the FBI investigation into Trump
On Monday, the FBI served a warrant to inspect former President Donald Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago. Before discussing the implications of this, I want to establish a few things:
It should be a given that the bar for raiding the home of a former president of the United States must be astronomically high and the probable cause for doing so airtight. I’d argue it is even more important given the political stakes of doing this to Trump, whose notoriously loyal base of supporters are primed to see any action like this as tantamount to a war against them (as I’ll explain shortly).
This warrant was approved by Trump-appointed FBI Director Christopher Wray (whom nearly all Senate Republicans voted to confirm) and likely reviewed by Attorney General Merrick Garland before being signed by a federal magistrate judge.
According to legal experts, for a federal judge to be convinced to sign a search warrant, there was almost certainly compelling evidence that something on the property in question was tied to criminal activity.
We may not know for some time what these agents were after, but this raid was meant to be a signal to the country that no one is above the law—not even a president—and that if someone breaks it, they will be held to account. These are generally healthy traits for any democracy. As Atlantic writer Robinson Meyer pointed out:
Since 2009, Israel has indicted its sitting prime minster, France has prosecuted and convicted two former presidents, and South Korea has prosecuted, convicted, and imprisoned two of its former presidents. All were on corruption charges. It’s not unheard of among democracies.
All that said: I don’t think folks are thoroughly prepared for how ugly the fallout from this could get. As with every major (or even minor) event these days, America’s two parties have reacted along predictable partisan lines. Many Democrats celebrated the raid as a sign that Trump may finally face consequences for the numerous ways in which he might have broken the law while in office (or even afterward). By contrast, Republicans have recoiled, with Fox News calling this the behavior of a “banana republic” government and GOP members of Congress threatening to investigate the Justice Department (and possibly even impeach the attorney general) should they win the majority in the next Congress.
Some reactions from the right have been even more intense. Former New York City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik told Newsmax that he fears Democrats want to assassinate Trump. Some of Trump’s most ardent supporters have also been fervently talking about an impending civil war in the wake of yesterday’s raid.
Many liberals and media figures have seemed flabbergasted at how Republicans could react to this news with such visceral contempt for the FBI (a law enforcement agency, after all) and without knowing any of the actual details of the warrant. But this is emblematic of how people on the political left and in elite spaces often misunderstand what drives Trump’s supporters. The FBI raid was a “Fifth Avenue” moment—any legal or ethical lines Trump may have crossed don’t matter to his supporters because what he means and represents to them supersedes any supposed misdeeds he might have committed.
It’s important to understand some context here: trust among Republicans in the nation’s institutions has cratered in recent years. Many have come to view them as tools of America’s “elites,” whom they believe despise them and their way of life.1 It’s why Trump, who promised to be a wrecking ball to those institutions and to stand up for these people, has become an almost messianic figure, telling them at one point: “They’re not after me…they’re after you. I’m just in the way.” It’s why Trump’s attacks on the “deep state” resonated with them. And it’s why, when they heard that the one person whom they felt looked out for them was being targeted by these institutions, they viewed it as just the latest provocation in an ongoing cold war.
This spiteful view of our institutions has also translated into animosity toward Blue America more broadly. Talk or listen to some Republicans today and you sense a palpable fear among many of them that Democrats truly disdain everything about them and want to use their power to punish them—including the power of the federal government. As this resentment and distrust have grown, Republicans have begun to rationalize treating Democrats the same way they purportedly detest being treated. In a recent podcast interview, pollster Sarah Longwell said that in her focus groups in swing states, she finds that Democratic voters—despite disagreeing with Republicans on a lot—are actually more likely to try to sympathize with the other side’s concerns (a trend that has been observed more broadly as well). However, she noted, Republicans often do the opposite: many express abject hatred and contempt for Democrats.2
These growing levels of fear and loathing among America’s political factions could bring our democracy to its knees in the next couple of years, as Republicans search for a way to dislodge Democrats from power by any means necessary for what they view as the sake of their survival—and the country’s. There were already reports that Trump was considering another presidential run in 2024, and since the news of the raid on his home, those rumors seem to have turned into promises. If he runs and wins, he’ll be the president who survived two impeachment trials and numerous criminal probes to reassume the most powerful office in the land with plans to take direct aim at the “deep state” and institutions he’s always perceived to be working against him. And if he loses? What will happen when his plan to install loyalists in positions that oversee the election comes to fruition and he literally steals an election on the justification that the previous one was stolen from him? And, if that doesn’t work, will the next January 6 make the last one look like a beautiful summer day?
I worry that political tribalism is reaching dangerous new heights in the U.S. If fear of the other side and their right to govern when they win elections justifies tearing down democratic norms like respecting election results and adhering to the rule of law—if even the concept of rule of law succumbs to our partisan warfare (“rule of law for thee but not for me”) and any means of accountability are seen as an abuse of power—we are in deep trouble as a nation.3 We have ample historical evidence of what happens in countries that face irreconcilable tensions along identity lines, including in Germany, Rwanda, Israel/Palestine, Ireland, South Africa, the Middle East, and more. These types of tribal conflicts rarely—if ever—end without mass violence.
I’m sure I sound like a broken record in this space, but nothing will get better unless Americans figure out a way to turn down the temperature, begin talking and mingling with people who have different political beliefs, and stop seeing each other as threats. I realize this may be far easier said than done. But, lest we put the future of the American experiment at risk, I truly see no way of resolving these issues other than to engage, listen, and learn from one another. Don’t rush to judgment about others’ motives. Go out for a burger or watch a sporting event together. You don’t even have to talk politics! Just spend time trying to better understand others’ motivations, their interests, their desires in life. You might be surprised at how far it gets you—and it could just end up helping save us from ourselves.
Further reading on this topic:
Tim Alberta: What Comes After the Warrant?
Nate Cohn: Why Political Sectarianism Is a Growing Threat to American Democracy
If you made it this far, please enjoy this palate cleanser and have a nice rest of your day:
It’s worth noting that a sizable share of Trump supporters are also elites, though they may not have the cultural power that liberal elites do.
For what it’s worth: she added that she doesn’t conduct these focus groups in dark red or blue states, and that she wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats in deeply blue states feel the same way as these Republicans.
Conversely, it’s just as problematic if parties do begin using the justice system for their own political ends.
Most people are stupid and disgusting though. And there are more of stupid people on the Republican side (by a number of tests, they may be trailing behind by as much as 8.5 IQ points). This also leads to a culture where even Republican-supporting smart people aren't celebrated by Republicans because intelligence stops being at a premium.