What could Trump do in a second term?
The former president won’t need a friendly Congress to pursue much of his agenda
The prospect of a second Trump term has engendered a growing sense of dread among many Americans, especially in light of his darker rhetoric and more menacing pledges. While his bluster in the 2016 campaign often didn’t translate to real action during his presidency—for example, his threats to jail former Secretary Hillary Clinton and build a border wall were ultimately toothless—it wasn’t always for a lack of trying. As a second term becomes a real possibility, it’s worth grappling with what he could (and couldn’t) do. Could he pass a national abortion ban? Shut down the border? Purge the federal bureaucracy? Be a dictator for a day?
Suffice it to say: Trump will have wide latitude to take unilateral action as it relates to the executive branch, but the extent to which he’ll be able to do this without congressional pushback—or to pass any kind of legislative agenda at all—will largely hinge on the outcomes of down-ballot races this November.
It’s important not to overstate the president’s powers. America’s bulwarks against any president’s more authoritarian impulses have so far continued to hold. The courts on numerous occasions reeled Trump back in when he overstepped his bounds during his first term. At the same time, though, it is becoming clear that one of Trump’s top second-term priorities is to reshape his arm of government in a way no president has done since FDR. In doing so, he could oversee a vast expansion of presidential power.
Part of what came to frustrate Trump throughout his first term was a sense that few people in his inner circle or cabinet were willing to fight for him or his priorities. The GOP establishment famously surrounded him with “adults in the room,” such as Reince Priebus, John Kelly, and Rex Tillerson. All these men tried at various points to curb Trump’s worse impulses—and each of their tenures came to an early and unceremonious end.
As Trump pushed out establishment figures over the course of his presidency, he sought to mold the executive branch more in his image. In February 2020, he tapped as his new head of the Presidential Personnel Office 29-year-old Johnny McEntee, who was tasked with identifying and removing civil servants thought to be working against the president and his agenda. Since Trump left office, McEntee and other former aides have been involved in a Heritage Foundation scheme known as Project 2025, a massive operation preparing detailed policies and personnel lists to help Trump pick up where he left off—but this time with an administration of toadies and a clearer plan for pushing pro-MAGA policies.
The Trump campaign has sought to somewhat distance itself from Project 2025, saying its architects don’t speak for him. However, Trump has previously expressed support for many of the project’s ideas. In fact, toward the end of his first term, he adopted one of them: reclassifying civil servants as “Schedule F.” Under this change, long-time government workers would lose their employment protections and essentially become at-will employees, making it easier for his administration to fire people whom they consider to be working against his interests (or those whom he considers part of the “deep state”).
Trump is also expected to bring his demands for loyalty to his inner circle, creating a bubble of subservient “yes men.” Gone are the days of chiefs of staff like Priebus, Kelly, and Mick Mulvaney who pushed back against him. This time, Trump plans to keep as his confidants those who previously demonstrated unwavering loyalty to him, such as senior adviser Stephen Miller, political adviser Steve Bannon, and national security adviser Kash Patel.
In this same spirit, Trump and his allies have their eyes set on the Justice Department, the nation’s top law-enforcement agency. Trump worked to erode the DOJ’s independence throughout his first term, and his loyalists—notably, Jeffrey Clark in an editorial called “The U.S. Justice Department Is Not Independent”— have been making the argument that President Biden politicized the department by bringing criminal charges against Trump. They thus believe that, if elected again, Trump should treat the DOJ like any other federal department, involving himself in its affairs whenever he sees it.
The consequences of such a move could be profound. Most healthy democracies do their best to keep the administration of justice removed from politics. Changing this ethos in America by making the DOJ a de facto arm of the presidency—allowing presidents to wantonly pursue vengeance against their enemies, including their successors—would set a new and dangerous precedent.
In addition to further concentrating power in the hands of the president and threatening America’s longstanding commitment to an independent system of justice, there is plenty else Trump could do on his own. On the international stage, he may reshape the global balance of power by abandoning the United States’ European allies and withdrawing from NATO, an action he has entertained multiple times. He will almost surely refuse to continue funding Ukraine in its war against Russia. He appears ready to re-escalate his trade war with China. He has also suggested he would lob missiles into the borders of Mexico—a U.S. ally and trade partner—to disrupt drug cartels’ business.
Domestically, Trump has promised a heavy focus on immigration in his second term, envisioning a crackdown on illegal migration that could include raids, mass detention camps, millions of deportations per year, a freeze of the nation’s asylum program, and an end to birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants (the last of which is probably unconstitutional). He may also reinstitute his travel ban on select Muslim-majority countries.
Additionally, he has avowed that he will issue pardons to Americans who stormed the Capitol on January 6, whom he has referred to as “hostages.” Among the most ominous things he has threatened is deploying the military on American soil to quell domestic unrest, specifically in Democratic-controlled cities—something he nearly did during the summer of 2020 under the Insurrection Act.
Though most or all of these actions are bound to face legal challenges and political opposition, many of them are likely within Trump’s power to pursue. And while his administration didn’t always know where the right levers were in his first term, the plans outlined by Project 2025 and push to create a bureaucracy more committed to his agenda could leave him well-positioned to achieve much of what he wants to do.
Meanwhile, if Republicans win control of both houses of Congress in November, Trump’s hands could be freed even further. Several controversial policies for which he has previously expressed support would suddenly be on the table, including a national abortion ban and yet another attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act. He could also be expected to take aim at Biden’s signature first-term accomplishment, the Inflation Reduction Act. Additionally, he may try to revive first-term policies, such as funding his border wall or passing another round of corporate tax cuts.
Prognostications of Trump’s second term have often focused on Doomsday scenarios—imagining him as an outright fascist or lining up political adversaries against a wall—and the indelible images of January 6 are very much on people’s minds. But even if Trump abides by executive norms, as he more or less did for the bulk of his first term, he could still have a profound impact in his second go-round. He has a friendly Supreme Court and congressional Republicans who are willing to rubber-stamp his agenda. Through executive action alone, he could overhaul his branch of government, reshape America’s foreign policy, and sow tremendous discord at home. The question now is whether enough Americans are sufficiently spooked by those prospects to rally behind Biden and prevent a second Trump term.
A version of this piece first appeared in Persuasion.